The 2019 Lok Sabha Election Results are going to be a defining moment in Indian politics. It is the first time ever in India’s political history that the election were fought on religious, cultural and caste lines. It will reflect sharp fault line in Indian polity and on what basis the electorate votes. Despite the dominance of the right-wing, opposition might arise from key constituencies in different ways or in a different format.
These constituencies might change the Indian political system forever, and may show what will happen to Indian politics from here onwards. Let’s analyse and see why these constituency hold key to India’s future political course of action.
Lovely Singh, Congress party’s former Delhi Chief Ministerial candidate, has a loyal vote-bank among Sikh community of East Delhi. Sikhs consists 10 percent of East Delhi population and might become the voter cutter in this constituency. Lovely Singh also is known among the people for doing a good job as their leader, and a part of East Delhi may choose him over Gautam Gambhir and Atishi Marlena.
Gautam Gambhir, a cricketer and a celebrity, who is a active sports player whose trying his second innings as a politician. He is fighting on the BJP ticket on Modi’s name. He has often been noted that celebrity Member Parliaments become absent after winning. They are absent from Parliament, and they do not engage with the people and they even exhaust the Member Parliament fund. Gautam Gambhir, on the other hand, says that he will manage both his professions and try to do a balancing act.
Atishi Marlena from the Aam Aadmi Party is known for the educational reform she has brought in Delhi government schools. In India, government schools are usually not known for their great pass percentage, infrastructure or about schools teachers. The advisor to education minister was thrown out by the Modi government because of her work and trying to enter the Indian Parliament.
But, in the last moment in order to influence voters, BJP came out with a pamphlet in order to character assassinated her. What holds key in this constituency how much people voted for a good candidate who truly is a hard worker and wishes to do something not for the power but because she truly wished to change the system. She is a politician that India has been dreaming of, someone who is not in the position for power but for the work it holds. What also needs to see how such misogyny influenced voters at the last moment and changed their votes and gave it some other candidate. In other words, this constituency has a similar pattern to what was in the 2016 US Presidential Elections – Misogyny vs Feminism, Celebrity vs Administrator. This constituency is the heart of urban India, and will decide how Indians vote, and how they think, and what the future course of voting could look like if we have administrators standing up for elections instead politicians.
The Bhopal fight is between terror accuse Pragya Thakur from the BJP and former Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh from the Congress party, Digvijay Singh. In a recent interview, former Finance Minister from the BJP, Yashwant Sinha said the faith of India’s pluralistic society and social harmony depends on what Bhopal votes in favour of, either Hindu Rashtra represented by Pragya Thakur or vote against her, in other words, in favour of Digvijay Singh which means people vote for secular India.
His statement holds key as it is also true for JDU ally of the BJP which has said that they will pull out the alliance if Prime Minister Modi allows Pragya Thakur to continue as a Member of Parliament. If the Bhartiya Janta Party gets less than 272, or even less than 250 then the allies become very important to hold the government together. Therefore, if Nitish Kumar’s JDUs words are into consideration, they may hold key onto who will form the government on the basis of who wins the seat of Bhopal and whether BJP will ask her to resign after winning because of JDUs pressure tactic.
Amethi constituency is the old bastion of the Gandhi family, and for the last 15 years, the Congress prince Rahul Gandhi who fighting for the fourth term from here. He is fighting against Union Minister Smriti Irani, who is giving him an extremely tough fight from his family constituency. If Congress President, Rahul Gandhi loses this seat, his leadership in his party will come under scanner, and what it will symbolize is people’s rejection of the Gandhi dynasty in the country. It will also bring into question the need to change Congress party and it’s dynastic nature. His loss might lead to Smriti Irani’s elevation in the BJP. It will lead her to getting the same position as Sushma Swaraj after fighting against Sonia Gandhi.
Amethi holds key to Gandhi family and Congress leadership.
Beghusarai which is known for being a communist stronghold in past as Kanhiya Kumar, former JNU student who rose to national prominence because of alleged anti-national slogan raised by him and his colleagues in the campus, is fighting from Communist Party of India (Marxist) ticket against BJP’s Giraj Singh who is a former Union Minister. With a weak and fragile opposition, if Kanhaiya Kumar wins Beghusarai it will be represent the comeback of the left wing in India and that real opposition to Prime Minister Modi will come from a former the left wing. It will very symbolic for two reasons. At a time when the entire country is going to the right, and the left stronghold which was said to be West Bengal, CPI has been decimated, a seat being won by Communist Party of India (Marxist) in Bihar will hold key to India’s political history and future. Bihar is known for changing political landscape in the country beginning from caste politics to being one the key state in the Parliament and the Hindi heartland. Also, if Kanhaiya wins, Lok Sabha debates between the BJP and opposition will be electrifying.
Rahul Gandhi, Congress President, is not only fighting for Amethi but also from Wayanad, a constituency from Kerala. Kerala is the only Indian state where BJP has not been able to make ways and has won even a single seat in the last 5 years. Therefore, it is the only Indian state that has not been coloured saffron. Placing his bets on Wayanad, the Gandhi prince hopes if he loses Amethi he will retain himself in the Parliament from Wayanad where the Congress party has no real opposition from the BJP. Also, if he wins both the seats – Wayanad and Amethi – it is to be seen which one he will retain, which may decide future course of action for the Congress party. If he loses Amethi and wins Wayanad, then the Gandhi goal-post might shift to South India which may change the future politics of the country from the side of the Congress party.
Each constituency above symbolize what India and it’s people think like or give a sense to political analysts on how people vote, what they think and how they can predict in future elections what India might vote for. If a particular constituency represents who holds the truth to two-nation theory, another represent what the Cold War was fought on – right versus the left. At the same time, we have a constituency symbolizing very current issues from East Delhi – Celebrity versus Administrator. While another one hopes to end first half of India’s political history captured under one name, Gandhi. Therefore, the question that comes up is - Who will emerge victorious in these key constituency ?